The CFTC is turning event-contract approval into the moat
The proposed case-by-case framework does not make prediction markets permissionless. It makes contract approval, settlement design, and compliance capacity the new source
5 minKalshi’s $1 billion perp week is about order flow, not the headline bet
Kalshi’s perpetual futures debut turns prediction markets into a continuous pricing and data business. The operator prize is not one event contract; it is the flow, the-f
5 minFed-cut odds are the cheap macro feed — only after you normalize the contract
The June FOMC probability split across PolyInsider and Closelook is not just a Fed story. It is a data-quality story about resolution windows, liquidity, and who owns the
5 min